E-Commerce Annual Report

2025 State of
E-commerce Holiday Shipping in the U.S.

Eighth Edition

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About this report

Shipping takes center stage as e-commerce gears up for the 2025 holiday season. In our 8th edition of The State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping report, we highlight critical delivery trends, operational challenges, and evolving consumer expectations for speed and reliability in the upcoming 2025 holiday season. Powered by verifiable order data based on unbiased insights on UPS and FedEx on-time performance.

Data Time Period

2024 Holiday Period (Nov 28 - Dec 31)
2025 Regular Operating Period (Jan 1 - Oct 31)

On-time Performance Analysis

Ground and Express Services
Deliveries To Key U.S. Cities and States
Key Retail Categories
Forecast for the 2025 Holiday Season

Key Findings

7-10%

packages delayed during 2024 Holiday Season

6-9%

packages delayed during 2025 Jan–Oct period

10–12%

delays expected during 2025 Holiday Season

Key Highlights

UPS stays ahead: UPS is projected to outperform FedEx, with delivery delays averaging 8–10% during the 2025 holiday season.
Express services stay strained: Premium Next-Day and 2-Day deliveries from both carriers face 8–10% delays, mirroring 2024’s peak performance.
FedEx Ground trails UPS: UPS Ground improved from 7.18% → 6.81%, while FedEx Ground improved slightly 7.78% → 7.19%, indicating stronger UPS stability.
Category complexity impacts reliability: Jewelry and Electronics report 8–9% delays, while Apparel and Sports shipments show steadier, more predictable delivery timelines.
Returns surge ahead: Online orders rising 5–8% are expected to drive record return volumes across major carriers in 2026.

Our Purpose

At LateShipment.com, we're passionate about bringing transparency to the shipping landscape — empowering retailers and industry publications with reliable, data-driven insights. This report, done by leveraging proprietary data from millions of tracked pages, reflects our commitment to providing unbiased analysis that helps e-commerce businesses optimize their logistics strategies and deliver better customer experiences.

Who can use this report?

Retail Analysts

E-commerce & Retail Leaders

Journalists

Logistics & Supply Chain Leaders