Key Takeaways
- Carriers are heading into Holiday 2025 with an expected 10–12% of packages at risk of delay, up from 7–10% during the 2024 peak and 6–9% during Jan–Oct 2025.
- On-time performance and delay risk vary sharply by carrier, region, service type, and retail category—there is no single “holiday reality” for everyone.
- Retailers that rethink delivery promises, service mix, and cut-off dates using real performance data can significantly reduce “Where is my order?” chaos.
- The post-purchase experience (tracking, notifications, proactive support) now weighs as heavily on loyalty as price and product during peak season.
- The 2025 State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping in the U.S. report gives brands a data-backed playbook to protect both revenue and customer experience this holiday.
Introduction
Every year, the stakes for holiday shipping get a little higher.
Shoppers expect fast, reliable delivery, but carriers are navigating rising costs, record parcel volumes, and complex operations. The gap between what customers expect and what the network can actually deliver is where frustration, support tickets, and broken loyalty live.
To help close that gap, LateShipment.com’s 2025 State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping in the U.S. (Eighth Edition) analyzes millions of UPS and FedEx shipments, comparing the 2024 holiday period to Jan–Oct 2025 performance and forecasting what to expect for Holiday 2025.
This blog distills the report’s key findings into practical moves retailers can make now, before the first holiday cart is opened and the first “Is it going to arrive on time?” email hits your inbox.
Why Holiday Shipping in 2025 Demands a New Playbook
Since 2020, parcel networks have lived through surges, bottlenecks, and constant recalibration. Consumers, meanwhile, have been trained by big marketplaces to expect fast shipping, precise ETAs, and constant visibility.
The 2025 data shows that delays are not a one-off anomaly; they’re a structural risk. Even in a “regular” operating period (Jan–Oct 2025), 6–9% of packages arrived late. During the 2024 holiday season, that climbed to 7–10%, and the forecast for Holiday 2025 is 10–12% delayed deliveries.
“Good enough” operations loosely set cut-offs, generic promises, and reactive support aren’t enough in that environment. Retailers need a playbook built around what carriers are actually doing, not what we hope they’ll do.
Inside the 2025 Holiday Shipping Report
The report is based on verifiable order data, not surveys or perception. It looks at millions of shipments moved by UPS and FedEx across the U.S., broken down by:
Time periods
- 2024 holiday period: Nov 28 – Dec 31
- 2025 regular operations: Jan 1 – Oct 31
Metrics
- On-time performance
- Delay percentages
- Exceptions and disruptions
- Average transit times
- Forecast delay ranges for Holiday 2025
Dimensions
- Ground vs Express services
- Key U.S. states and cities
Retail categories (Apparel, Jewelry, Electronics, Sports, etc.)
In short, this is how carriers actually performed, not what they promised.
What the Data Says About Carrier Performance in 2025
How Are Major Carriers Performing Heading into Holiday 2025?
The headline: UPS is projected to stay ahead of FedEx on reliability this peak season. The report shows UPS is expected to average around 8–10% delays during the 2025 holiday window, while FedEx lags slightly behind.
On Ground services, UPS has nudged its performance from 7.18% → 6.81% delayed, while FedEx Ground improved from 7.78% → 7.19%—better, but still behind UPS.
For retailers, this isn’t about picking a “winner” carrier. It’s about mapping your own volumes and lanes to the carrier that’s most reliable there, then building a holiday strategy around those realities.
Peak Surcharges and Service Constraints
The report highlights how surcharges and capacity limits show up as friction in the network. As carriers prioritize higher-margin services and control volume, the cheapest label is rarely the least risky option.
If your margin model or customer promise is built solely on headline rates, ignoring performance and surcharge behavior, you’ll feel that pain most acutely in December.
Performance by Region, Service Type, and Retail Category
Which States and Cities Are Most at Risk of Delays?
The report breaks out on-time performance for key U.S. states and cities, making it clear that there is no single “national average” experience. Some dense corridors and remote regions consistently run hotter on delays than others.
For retailers, this means national cut-off dates are often too blunt. You need regional nuance baked into your promises and planning.
How Service Types Behave Under Holiday Pressure
One of the more sobering findings: premium services are not immune to holiday stress. Next-Day and 2-Day Express services from both UPS and FedEx show 8–10% delays, mirroring last year’s peak performance.
So paying more for Express doesn’t always guarantee a perfect experience. It’s still valuable, but it needs to be paired with realistic promises and proactive communication.
Which Retail Categories Feel the Heat the Most?
Category complexity matters. The report shows Jewelry and Electronics shipments facing 8–9% delay rates, while Apparel and Sports shipments tend to have steadier and more predictable timelines.
If you sell high-value, time-sensitive categories, your tolerance for last-mile risk is much lower—and your need for clear ETAs, insurance, and exception workflows is much higher.
Holiday 2025 Predictions, Trends & Risk Areas
Pulling it together, the report forecasts 10–12% of packages delayed during the 2025 holiday season.
Three big signals for retailers:
- Delays are a when, not an if. Planning assumes a delay baseline instead of treating it as an edge case.
- Customer expectations continue to rise. Shoppers don’t just want fast; they want honest dates and timely updates when things go wrong.
- Cost pressures will keep pushing trade-offs. Surcharges and margins will tempt teams to cut corners on services—right when reliability is most important.
The brands that win are the ones that treat these trends as inputs to their plan—not background noise.
How Retailers Can Prepare for the 2025 Holiday Shipping Season
Rethink Delivery Promises and Cut-Off Dates
Use carrier and lane performance data to set specific cut-off dates by region and service level instead of one generic “order by” line. Build in buffers where historical delays spike, and be clear with customers about standard vs expedited outcomes.
Optimize Carrier and Service Mix
Instead of defaulting to a single carrier or the cheapest label, create a tiered service mix: match reliable services to high-value or time-sensitive items and lanes, and reserve cheaper options for low-risk orders. The report’s Ground vs Express and carrier comparisons give you a starting template.
Plan for Exceptions Before They Happen
Assume you’ll see delays, lost or damaged packages, and misroutes. Use the data to identify where those issues are most likely, then build playbooks for each scenario: who’s notified, how you communicate with the customer, and when you reship, refund, or upgrade service.
The Post-Purchase Customer Experience Mandate for Holiday 2025
Delivery performance is no longer a “back office” concern. It’s part of your brand promise.
When delays happen, what customers remember is not the carrier scan they remember whether your brand kept them informed and took responsibility for the experience.
Turn Tracking into a Customer Experience and Revenue Channel
Branded tracking pages, honest ETAs, and proactive notifications turn a stressful wait into a guided journey. Instead of “Did they forget about my order?”, the experience becomes “They’re on top of this, even when the carrier isn’t.”
That same real-time visibility lets you surface helpful content and relevant products, turning tracking visits into a subtle but powerful revenue channel.
Shrink “Where Is My Order?” and Support Overload
Smart alerts, exception triggers, and self-serve tracking dramatically cut the volume of “Where is my order?” tickets. During peak, that’s the difference between a support team fighting fires and a team that has the bandwidth to step in on truly critical issues.
7 Practical Plays to Upgrade Post-Purchase for Holiday 2025
You don’t need a complete rebuild. Start with a focused set of plays:
- Calibrate cut-off dates to real delay data, not guesswork.
- Adjust service choices on risky lanes and high-value items.
- Add clear ETAs and proactive delay updates to all order comms.
- Stand up or refine a branded tracking page before peak.
- Use exception alerts to trigger fast make-good actions (upgrades, reships, credits).
- Protect high-value and at-risk shipments with shipping insurance and claims automation.
- Review post-peak metrics—delay rates, WISMO volume, repeat purchase behavior—and feed them into your 2026 playbook.
Conclusion
The 2025 State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping report makes one thing clear: holiday shipping risk isn’t going away; it’s becoming more measurable.
The brands that win this season won’t be the ones that avoid every delay. They’ll be the ones that use data to plan realistically, set honest expectations, and show up for customers when the network falls short.
If Holiday 2024 was about surviving volatility, Holiday 2025 is about designing around it, with smarter promises, better service mix, and a post-purchase experience that keeps customers informed, calm, and willing to come back.
To dive deeper into carrier comparisons, city-level breakdowns, and category-specific performance, you can read the full 2025 State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping in the U.S. report and turn this year’s shipping reality into next year’s competitive advantage.
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